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Latest issue · 19 Oct 2026
Past issuesThe Event
The Reserve Bank of Australia has toughened its language on interest rates, the Australian Financial Review reported, leaving the door open to more hikes even as house prices slide.
Why It Matters
This matters because it shows a central bank fighting inflation it cannot easily reach.
The numbers behind the headlines
US 10-year Treasury yield
5.0%
Sept 2026
Fed funds rate
3.8%
Sept 2026
US inflation (CPI, year on year)
3.7%
Sept 2026
US unemployment rate
4.2%
Sept 2026
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Structural themes
Four slow-moving forces sit behind most of the headlines we cover. Every Atlas briefing is written with them in mind.
01
Global trade has kept growing through the tariff years. What has changed is the cost and predictability of moving goods across borders. In 2026 the legal basis for US tariffs changed three times: the Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariffs in February, a temporary 10% surcharge replaced them and lapsed in July, and a new tariff of 10% or 12.5% on roughly 60 economies took over. Chinese goods still carry older duties of 25% to 100% on top. A company can plan around a high tariff. Planning around one that changes every few months is much harder.
What it changes
The damage shows up in company margins rather than in trade statistics. Importers carry extra stock, pay for compliance and hold back investment until the rules settle. Prices in shops follow with a lag.
Signals to watch
02
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta plan to spend between $720bn and $745bn this year, most of it on data centres and the chips and power to run them. Alphabet alone plans about $200bn, against $91bn last year. Spending on this scale is outrunning the cash these businesses generate: Amazon's free cash flow over the past year turned negative. The gap is filled with debt, raised by the tech groups and by the developers and power companies building for them. Whether AI works matters less here than whether it pays back fast enough to cover the borrowing.
What it changes
A large share of recent stock market gains and US investment growth rests on this spending continuing. If one of the four cuts its budget, the effect reaches chipmakers, utilities, construction firms and their lenders.
Signals to watch
03
Private credit is lending done by investment funds instead of banks, mostly to mid-sized companies. It grew quickly when interest rates were near zero. Fitch's default rate for US private credit reached 6.3% in the year to August, the highest it has recorded, and has been above 6% since April. Healthcare and industrial borrowers are close to 10%. By the end of 2024, the IMF found, more than 40% of these borrowers were spending more cash than they earned, up from about 25% in 2021. Many now pay interest with more debt, an arrangement called payment in kind, which postpones a default without preventing it.
What it changes
These loans are not traded, so the funds decide what they are worth and losses surface slowly. Pension funds and insurers are the main investors, and banks lend to the funds, which is how the trouble can spread.
Signals to watch
04
About a fifth of the world's oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel between Iran and Oman. It has been disrupted since 28 February, when US and Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Iran closed the strait. A June agreement to end the war broke down in July, and its 60-day window for a final deal lapsed in August. There is still no ceasefire. Talks continue through mediators, and President Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms.
What it changes
Energy is an input to almost everything, so a prolonged closure feeds into inflation and then into interest rates. Shipping and insurance costs rise for any cargo that passes near the Gulf.
Signals to watch
