Atlas Macro

Economy

Core Inflation

Inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices to better capture underlying price trends.

Key points

  • Often viewed as a better signal of persistent inflation pressure.
  • Central banks watch core measures closely when setting policy.
  • Typically runs below headline inflation when energy prices spike.

Example

If headline CPI rises 5% but energy prices jumped 20%, core CPI might show only 3%, a better guide to underlying inflation.

In history

By June 2023 US headline CPI inflation had fallen from 9.1% to 3%, but core was still about 4.8%. The Fed kept rates high because core was falling much more slowly.

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