Atlas Macro

Markets

Correlation Breakdown

When assets that normally move independently, or in opposite directions, start moving together, usually in a crisis, reducing the protection diversification was meant to give.

Key points

  • Shares and government bonds usually moved in opposite directions from 2000 to 2021; in 2022 both fell together.
  • In a sell-off, riskier assets (shares, high-yield bonds, emerging markets) tend to fall together.
  • Forced selling by leveraged investors can push unrelated assets down at the same time.

Example

A 60/40 portfolio cushions a fall in shares only if bonds rise or hold steady. If both fall, the portfolio loses more than its owner expected.

In history

In mid-March 2020, in a scramble for cash, even Treasuries and gold were briefly sold alongside shares. In 2022, rising inflation pushed shares and bonds down together for the whole year.

Related terms