Key points
- Major releases: NFP (first Friday), CPI (mid-month), FOMC (8x/year).
- Markets price in expectations before release.
- Surprises vs consensus drive volatility.
Example
If NFP is due at 8:30 AM ET and expected to show 200k jobs added, S&P 500 often trades muted before the print, then gaps +/- 1% on the result.
In history
Payroll numbers far from expectations have produced some of the largest daily moves in bond yields, which is why markets are often quiet in the hours before the release.
Related terms