Key points
- Often associated with rising unemployment and falling investment.
- Yield curve inversions have historically preceded recessions.
- The NBER determines US recession dates retroactively.
Example
US GDP fell at an annualised rate of about 5% in Q1 2020 and about 30% in Q2. The NBER had already announced in June 2020 that a recession began in February.
In history
The COVID recession (February-April 2020) was the shortest on record but cost about 22 million jobs. The 2007-2009 Great Recession lasted 18 months.
Related terms