Key points
- Released alongside Dot Plot 4 times per year.
- Shows range and central tendency of forecasts.
- Longer-run estimates reveal Fed's equilibrium views.
Example
If the median projected rate rises while growth forecasts fall, markets read it as the Fed putting inflation first, and yields usually rise.
In history
The June 2022 projections, released alongside the first 75 bp rise since 1994, lifted the median expected year-end rate to 3.4%, from 1.9% three months earlier.
Related terms