Atlas Macro

Economy

Goldilocks

Economic environment with moderate growth and low inflation—not too hot, not too cold.

Key points

  • Historically a supportive backdrop for shares, with stable bonds.
  • 2017 is a commonly cited recent example.
  • Rare and hard to sustain for long.

Example

If growth runs near 2.5%, inflation holds near 2% and the central bank has no need to raise rates, shares have historically tended to do well.

In history

The late 1990s are a textbook example: US growth around 4%, inflation mostly between 1.5% and 3%, and the S&P 500 roughly tripled between 1995 and 1999.

Related terms